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Sunday, July 19, 2009

Water Resources and Freshwater Ecosystems-- Nepal

Posted By: Bijay Raj Bagale
Source:http://earthtrends.wri.org/pdf_library/country_profiles/wat_cou_524.pdf



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Water Resources and Freshwater Ecosystems-- Nepal(PDF)

Climate Change Threatens More Hunger

Posted By:Simon Butler
Posted Date: 18 July 2009
URL: http://www.greenleft.org.au/2009/803/41317

Zero point eight of a degree of warming may not seem like that much. This is how much average temperatures have risen over the past two centuries as a result of carbon pollution.

Yet this seemingly small change is already upsetting the delicate balance of the Earth’s ecosystems and throwing once predictable seasons out of whack.

Closer to the poles, the warming is happening much faster than the world average. Thanks to global warming, locally grown broccoli, carrots, cauliflower, cabbage and even a few strawberries now stock supermarket shelves in ice-covered Greenland.

It might seem like a good thing for the 57,000 people who live in Greenland. But it’s an example of the changing weather patterns that threaten to wreack havoc on human civilisation.

Without emergency action to cut emissions and develop sustainable farming, climate change will make some of the world’s richest agricultural areas unproductive.

Climate change equals more hunger. A failure of the world’s richest polluting nations to act will add millions more to the shockingly high numbers — a billion people — who are malnourished today.

The currently existing dysfunctional, profits-based food system will be unable to cope with the changes. A new report released by Oxfam on July 6 warned that climate change threatens to make famine, disease and disasters “the new normal”.

“Hunger will be one of the major impacts of climate change”, the report said. “It may be the defining human tragedy of this century.

“Millions of people in countries that already have food security problems will have to give up traditional crops and agricultural methods as they experience changes in the seasons that they and their ancestors have depended upon.”

In February, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) predicted changing weather patterns, water scarcity, the spread of damaging insects and pests to new areas and land degradation would increase in many parts of the world due to climate change.

It said up to 25% of world food production might be lost by 2050 if no action are taken.

In parts of the wealthy, industrialised world (excluding Australia) crop yields may actually rise. In the US, for example, agricultural profits may rise in the short-term by as much as 4% a year due to warmer weather.

Wheat production in other major polluting nations in northern Europe and Canada may also rise — at least in the short-term.

Meanwhile, the outlook for billions of people in the global South — the people who have contributed least to the climate disaster — is dire. Climate change will change seasons, lower yields and spread hunger among the world’s poorest.

Maize is a staple crop in sub-Saharan Africa. Oxfam predicts US$2 billion worth of the crop will be lost every year.

Dr Balgis Osman-Elasha, from the Higher Council for Environment and Natural Resources in Sudan, told the Copenhagen Science Conference in March that “53% of African disasters are climate-related and one-third of African people live in drought-prone areas. By 2020 yields from water-fed agriculture in Africa could be down by 50%.”

Wheat production in south Asia’s fertile Indo-Gangetic plain could fall by 50% by mid-century. Rice yields in the Philippines could fall by 50%-70% in a decade.

South African government officials warn of a 50% drop in the region’s cereal production by 2080.

The UNEP said the disappearance of glaciers in the Himalayas due to climate change would mean no water for irrigation for about half of Asia’s total cereal production by 2050. The region accounts for a quarter of world food production today and provides for almost 2 billion people.

It was more a publicity stunt than a serious commitment, but the world’s richest governments, including Australia, settled for a target of 2ÂșC warming at the recent G8 summit. This amounts to more than a doubling of warming from now.

However, scientists say current pollution levels and government inaction will mean the planet will overshoot the 2°C target by a dangerously wide margin.

The Oxfam report pointed out that even 2°C is still far too high to prevent “death, suffering, and devastation for millions”.

The rich countries have an immense ecological debt to repay the global South after centuries of pollution. Ending unfair agricultural subsidies for First World producers and massive aid and investment to develop sustainable farming must be part of this repayment.

Otherwise, up to 200 million people will become refugees every year due to hunger and land loss by 2050, Oxfam warned.

The widespread development of sustainable organic agriculture offers a way out of the looming crisis. The UNEP said a recent African study of 114 farms across 24 countries showed a marked increase in yields, while improving soil quality. Most farms doubled food production.

In some East African farms, the yield shot up by 128%.

Greenhouse emissions from unsustainable agricultural practices — mostly from big agri-business concerns — are also a big part of the climate change problem. If emissions from livestock, the use and production of synthetic fertilisers and the transport of food for long distances are included, capitalist agriculture is responsible for up to 30% of the total carbon pollution worldwide.

The dominance of corporate interests in agriculture is the biggest barrier to much needed sustainable changes in food production. Ten corporations control 67% of the world seed market. Ten large firms also control 63% of animal pharmaceuticals and 89% of the agro-chemical supply.

A shift to organic farming might save many lives, but it would hurt their profits.

Real food security for the world is possible. But it will require a decisive break from today’s market-based food system — a system that drives hunger and climate change at the same time.

From: International News, Green Left Weekly issue #803 19 July 2009.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Why hold a conference on abrupt climate change? Interview: Lonnie Thompson

Source:http://www.nature.com/climate/2009/0908/full/climate.2009.66.html
Posted On : 15 July 2006
Posted By: Bijay Raj Bagale


Interview: Lonnie Thompson


Glaciologist Lonnie Thompson has spent more time above 20,000 feet than any other human being. In collecting a vast library of ice samples from mountain peaks, he has developed a unique view of past and present-day climate change. Anna Barnett caught up with him at the American Geophysical Union's Chapman Conference on Abrupt Climate Change, held 15–19 June at Thompson's own Ohio State University.

Why hold a conference on abrupt climate change?
Interview: Lonnie Thompson


Understanding the mechanisms of abrupt changes in our climate would be important in any period of time. But in today's world, it's especially important given that we've never had 6.7 billion people before, and that the potential impacts of changes on social and economic systems could be substantial.

Why focus on the past?

To understand the mechanisms of abrupt changes in the present and future, you need to know what has occurred in the past. We're fortunate to live on a planet that has recorded very detailed histories, often annually, of how the climate system worked in the past. We can look at the various recorders we have, be they ice cores or trees, and learn from them to better understand where we are today and where we may be in the future.

What information can you garner from glaciers?

Glaciers are like sentinels, and they're telling us that the system is changing. The first thing we look for in the ice is radioactivity from thermonuclear bomb tests in 1962–1963 and 1951–1952. Back in 2006, we drilled three cores in the southwestern Himalayas. At 6,050 metres, where those glaciers reach their highest elevation, we found that neither of these radioactive layers was preserved. The glaciers are being decapitated. Not only are they retreating up the mountain slopes, but they are thinning from the top down.

This same scenario is playing out on Mount Kilimanjaro in Africa. When we drilled there in 2000 we found the 1951 test preserved, but not the 1962 test. We've since continued to monitor those glaciers and we know that we've lost three metres of ice since 2000. If we had waited until this year to drill, we would not have found the 1951 bomb horizon, because that has now been lost.

What does that mean for climate science?

Once a glacier melts, the history it contained is gone forever, so there's an urgency in trying to collect the records before they are lost.

Glaciers are like sentinels, and they're telling us that the system is changing.

The loss of tropical glaciers is very telling because they're in such sensitive places. Half of the surface of the planet lies between 30° N and 30° S. That's where the heat that drives the climate system is received. It's also where 70 per cent of the 6.7 billion people on the planet live.

What's the effect on people as these glaciers disappear?

After this meeting, we're headed to Peru to drill new ice cores at two sites. That country contains 75 per cent of the world's glaciers. Eighty per cent of its population is in the desert on the west coast, and 76 per cent of the electricity comes from hydropower, from streams that are fed by glaciers in the Andes, all of which are retreating. Those changes are impacting the ability to produce hydropower, to irrigate crops in the desert and to provide municipal water supplies.

How can we deal with such changes?

One possibility is to build dams to capture the water and do what the glacier does for free. You can think of a glacier as a water tower. It accumulates water in the wet season, when 70–80 per cent of precipitation falls, and in the dry season it melts back and keeps water flowing in the streams. Unfortunately, people live in these river valleys — usually Quechua Indians — as have their ancestors, and there's no way that they will want the valleys to be flooded to construct these dams. There have been riots already, just this past year. So even if you can come up with a solution from afar, there can be problems when you go to implement it on a local level.

In the twenty-first century we human beings face two major problems: how do we get along with each other, and how do we get along with our planet? Of course, our ability to get along with each other is probably going to be tested as we have water shortages and other climate-related impacts on cultures and economies around the planet. So the challenge will be how we can change the way we go about our daily activities to make our future sustainable.

Impacts of Climate Change in the Himalayas

Source:
http://www.climate4life.org/about-climate-change/impacts.html
Posted on: July 15 2009
Posted By: Bijay Raj Bagale
More than a billion people directly depend on the Himalayas for survival. And while Climate Change is global and can affect the entire planet, the immediate repercussions are local. In the Himalayas, it will adversely affect habitats and ecosystems and endanger the very existence of life not just in the adjoining areas of these mountains but also everyone living below in the plains. It is at an alarming rate that Climate Change is taking place and is likely to exert more pressure on natural resources and the environment. The core causes are associated with rapid urbanization, industrialization, and economic development.

The impacts will be catastrophic.

On Economy
Developing countries are most vulnerable to the economic impacts of climate change. The increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events can have serious economic consequences. The impact of climate change on agriculture and the fragile ecosystems in Nepal will have a direct impact on agricultural productivity and tourism, and consequently on the country's economy.

On Agriculture
Over two-thirds of Nepal's population depends on agriculture for their livelihood. Farmers follow traditional agricultural patterns, relying on rainwater and seasons. Changes in local and regional temperatures, the form and amount of precipitation, rainfall patterns, soil moisture content, and sunshine and cloudiness threaten traditional agriculture in Nepal. Moreover, climate change will increase the occurrence of extreme events like floods, droughts and hailstorms, which can also have a drastic effect on agriculture. Rising temperatures and increased rainfall may also lead to more pests and weeds, which will reduce agricultural productivity.

On Freshwater
The total amount of water flowing from the Himalayas to the plains, and then on to the Indian subcontinent is estimated to be about 8.6 million cubic meters per year. This water supports approximately more than a billion people. Decreases in snow accumulation and glacial retreat might lead to acute water shortages in the future.

On Health
Climate change will affect people’s health both directly and indirectly. Heat stress and other heat related health problems are caused directly by very warm temperatures and high humidity. Similarly, warmer climatic condition may cause a sharp increase in the spread of vector borne diseases like malaria, dengue, yellow fever and encephalitis.

On Glaciers
Almost 67% of the glaciers in the Himalayas have retreated and in Nepal, this process is as rapid as 10m a year. In the future, this will result in water scarcity in Nepal and for more than a billion people living downstream who depend on glaciers and snow as a source of fresh water. Nepal has 3,000 glaciers and 2,000 glacial lakes out of which 20 Lakes are at risk of bursting. Sagarmatha National Park (SNP) and Kanchenjunga Conservation Area (KCA) have already experienced many Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). GLOFs can have a devastating impact on people, livestock, forests, farms and infrastructure.

On Forests
Forests cover almost 29 per cent of Nepal. They absorb and store carbon dioxide. When trees are cut down and burnt, carbon dioxide is released back into the atmosphere. Forests play a critical role in balancing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, helping to minimize the impact of climate change. The rapidly changing conditions caused by climate change make plant species more vulnerable to disease and pests, contributing to the degradation and fragmentation of forests.

On Biodiversity
Climate change will alter the world’s habitats and ecosystems. Climate change will alter the fragile ecosystems of the Himalayas. As it warms up, vegetation and wildlife will move to higher altitudes. This change will upset the ecosystem balance and seriously endanger the survival of many plant and animal species. Rapid climate change will not give plants and animals enough time to adapt to the new situation. Biodiversity loss, besides the immediate impact on species, will affect the health, wellbeing and livelihoods of the people who rely on such resources.